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Abstract Over the last ten years, satellite and geographically constrained in situ observations largely focused on the northern hemisphere have suggested that annual phytoplankton biomass cycles cannot be fully understood from environmental properties controlling phytoplankton division rates (e.g., nutrients and light), as they omit the role of ecological and environmental loss processes (e.g., grazing, viruses, sinking). Here, we use multi-year observations from a very large array of robotic drifting floats in the Southern Ocean to determine key factors governing phytoplankton biomass dynamics over the annual cycle. Our analysis reveals seasonal phytoplankton accumulation (‘blooming’) events occurring during periods of declining modeled division rates, an observation that highlights the importance of loss processes in dictating the evolution of the seasonal cycle in biomass. In the open Southern Ocean, the spring bloom magnitude is found to be greatest in areas with high dissolved iron concentrations, consistent with iron being a well-established primary limiting nutrient in this region. Under ice observations show that biomass starts increasing in early winter, well before sea ice begins to retreat. The average theoretical sensitivity of the Southern Ocean to potential changes in seasonal nutrient and light availability suggests that a 10% change in phytoplankton division rate may be associated with a 50% reduction in mean bloom magnitude and annual primary productivity, assuming simple changes in the seasonal magnitude of phytoplankton division rates. Overall, our results highlight the importance of quantifying and accounting for both division and loss processes when modeling future changes in phytoplankton biomass cycles. 

Abstract The deep ocean releases large amounts of old, pre‐industrial carbon dioxide (CO₂) to the atmosphere through upwelling in the Southern Ocean, which counters the marine carbon uptake occurring elsewhere. This Southern Ocean CO₂release is relevant to the global climate because its changes could alter atmospheric CO₂levels on long time scales, and also affects the present‐day potential of the Southern Ocean to take up anthropogenic CO₂. Here, year‐round profiling float measurements show that this CO₂release arises from a zonal band of upwelling waters between the Subantarctic Front and wintertime sea‐ice edge. This band of high CO₂subsurface water coincides with the outcropping of the 27.8 kg m⁻³isoneutral density surface that characterizes Indo‐Pacific Deep Water (IPDW). It has a potential partial pressure of CO₂exceeding current atmospheric CO₂levels (∆PCO₂) by 175 ± 32 μatm. Ship‐based measurements reveal that IPDW exhibits a distinct ∆PCO₂maximum in the ocean, which is set by remineralization of organic carbon and originates from the northern Pacific and Indian Ocean basins. Below this IPDW layer, the carbon content increases downwards, whereas ∆PCO₂decreases. Most of this vertical ∆PCO₂decline results from decreasing temperatures and increasing alkalinity due to an increased fraction of calcium carbonate dissolution. These two factors limit the CO₂outgassing from the high‐carbon content deep waters on more southerly surface outcrops. Our results imply that the response of Southern Ocean CO₂fluxes to possible future changes in upwelling are sensitive to the subsurface carbon chemistry set by the vertical remineralization and dissolution profiles. 

Abstract The ocean is estimated to contribute up to ~20% of global fluxes of atmospheric nitrous oxide (N₂O), an important greenhouse gas and ozone depletion agent. Marine oxygen minimum zones contribute disproportionately to this flux. To further understand the partition of nitrification and denitrification and their environmental controls on marine N₂O fluxes, we report new relationships between oxygen concentration and rates of N₂O production from nitrification and denitrification directly measured with¹⁵N tracers in the Eastern Tropical Pacific. Highest N₂O production rates occurred near the oxic‐anoxic interface, where there is strong potential for N₂O efflux to the atmosphere. The dominant N₂O source in oxygen minimum zones was nitrate reduction, the rates of which were 1 to 2 orders of magnitude higher than those of ammonium oxidation. The presence of oxygen significantly inhibited the production of N₂O from both nitrification and denitrification. These experimental data provide new constraints to a multicomponent global ocean biogeochemical model, which yielded annual oceanic N₂O efflux of 1.7–4.4 Tg‐N (median 2.8 Tg‐N, 1 Tg = 10¹² g), with denitrification contributing 20% to the oceanic flux. Thus, denitrification should be viewed as a net N₂O production pathway in the marine environment. 

Abstract New estimates ofpCO₂from profiling floats deployed by the Southern Ocean Carbon and Climate Observations and Modeling (SOCCOM) project have demonstrated the importance of wintertime outgassing south of the Polar Front, challenging the accepted magnitude of Southern Ocean carbon uptake (Gray et al., 2018,https://doi:10.1029/2018GL078013). Here, we put 3.5 years of SOCCOM observations into broader context with the global surface carbon dioxide database (Surface Ocean CO₂Atlas, SOCAT) by using the two interpolation methods currently used to assess the ocean models in the Global Carbon Budget (Le Quéré et al., 2018,https://doi:10.5194/essd‐10‐2141‐2018) to create a ship‐only, a float‐weighted, and a combined estimate of Southern Ocean carbon fluxes (<35°S). In our ship‐only estimate, we calculate a mean uptake of −1.14 ± 0.19 Pg C/yr for 2015–2017, consistent with prior studies. The float‐weighted estimate yields a significantly lower Southern Ocean uptake of −0.35 ± 0.19 Pg C/yr. Subsampling of high‐resolution ocean biogeochemical process models indicates that some of the differences between float and ship‐only estimates of the Southern Ocean carbon flux can be explained by spatial and temporal sampling differences. The combined ship and float estimate minimizes the root‐mean‐squarepCO₂difference between the mapped product and both data sets, giving a new Southern Ocean uptake of −0.75 ± 0.22 Pg C/yr, though with uncertainties that overlap the ship‐only estimate. An atmospheric inversion reveals that a shift of this magnitude in the contemporary Southern Ocean carbon flux must be compensated for by ocean or land sinks within the Southern Hemisphere. 

Abstract Anthropogenically forced changes in ocean biogeochemistry are underway and critical for the ocean carbon sink and marine habitat. Detecting such changes in ocean biogeochemistry will require quantification of the magnitude of the change (anthropogenic signal) and the natural variability inherent to the climate system (noise). Here we use Large Ensemble (LE) experiments from four Earth system models (ESMs) with multiple emissions scenarios to estimate Time of Emergence (ToE) and partition projection uncertainty for anthropogenic signals in five biogeochemically important upper‐ocean variables. We find ToEs are robust across ESMs for sea surface temperature and the invasion of anthropogenic carbon; emergence time scales are 20–30 yr. For the biological carbon pump, and sea surface chlorophyll and salinity, emergence time scales are longer (50+ yr), less robust across the ESMs, and more sensitive to the forcing scenario considered. We find internal variability uncertainty, and model differences in the internal variability uncertainty, can be consequential sources of uncertainty for projecting regional changes in ocean biogeochemistry over the coming decades. In combining structural, scenario, and internal variability uncertainty, this study represents the most comprehensive characterization of biogeochemical emergence time scales and uncertainty to date. Our findings delineate critical spatial and duration requirements for marine observing systems to robustly detect anthropogenic change.